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Two days to go.

England's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often complicate day-night matches, when data indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

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