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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.